Global COVID-19 Mortality Forecasting

COVID-19 forecasting models are currently very influential, as they are used as a key input into policy decisions at the local, national, and international level. However, it can be difficult for policymakers to know which model to use, as hundreds have been produced, and they can differ widely in results and methodology. There is a need to bring together models from different groups, and also provide information about how well each model has performed historically, to help inform which should be considered in the future. is a free, online visualization tool that incorporates forecasts of COVID-19 mortality from major, global models. It provides forecasts months into the future, and for all countries and US states. Users from across the globe can compare what each set of forecasts are saying about COVID-19 in their country. They can also dig deeper and look at how well each model has done in the past, to inform their confidence in a given prediction. Our code and data are all open source and publicly available to promote cooperation and transparency.

The team is a group of 3 graduate/medical students at UCLA. We are seeking community feedback in order to refine our visualization. We hope this tool will be useful in guiding global policy guidelines and COVID-19 mitigation strategies.